
Patch 7.3a

Favorable matchup
Draven can make Smolder pay a steep price for walking up to farm. His job is to turn early damage into a wave, tower and objective lead, not to chase a kill while Smolder stacks resources in safety.
Smolder gains stacks by last-hitting with his first ability and by hitting champions with his abilities. Draven's axes let you punish that access to the wave. Draven's 7.3a buff supports that early pressure, but you need your axes and your support ready.
Smolder's third ability gives speed and lets him cross terrain. If he spends that escape, Draven and his support can threaten a fresh approach. Don't assume you can follow him over a wall or that Stand Aside will stop any flight in any situation.
Pressure when Smolder tries a close last hit, you have axes and your support can cover you. Once he has spent his flight, you can close down his space; if he heads over a wall where you have no vision, end the chase.
As Smolder, prioritize safe last hits and avoid contesting ready axes without your support. Save your flight for a real threat and don't burn it for a bit of damage. If Draven steps up to catch an exposed axe, use that angle for your ability and back off; losing a minion is better than handing him a kill with Adoration.

Favorable matchup
Caitlyn can pressure Smolder's access to minions with range and traps. She doesn't remove his stacks: she limits his chances to earn them and turns favorable waves into tower damage without blindly chasing his flight.
Caitlyn's range makes it easier to attack when Smolder walks up to use his first ability on a minion. Step away after the basic attack: if you stay lined up with the wave, his abilities can damage you and give him stacks.
Traps help cut off ground routes and set up allied crowd control. Smolder's third ability lets him cross terrain, so there's no foolproof ring of traps. Keep your net and vision so your siege doesn't turn into an engage by the enemy jungler.
Attack when Smolder goes for a last hit and your support controls the enemy approach. If he has already spent his flight, ramp up the pressure; when he has an escape and you can't see his jungler, don't force the catch.
As Smolder, avoid stepping into Caitlyn's range just to finish a last hit if her support can catch you. Keep your position away from the traps and hold your flight to escape along a route with vision. Use the moments her abilities are down to farm, without assuming your own tower stops her from poking you.

Execution matters
Lucian can punish Smolder with short sequences of abilities and double shots. He needs to hit the right window and keep an exit: his range forces him to get close, so he can't ignore the enemy support or Smolder's flight.
Lucian's passive adds a second shot after he uses an ability. Alternating abilities and basic attacks lets you pack the trade into a short burst before backing off. Chaining every ability without using the shots wastes part of that advantage.
Your third ability helps you adjust your angle and avoid a sneeze or the center strip of Smolder's ultimate. If you spend it forward, you end up close to his support and can't follow every flight over terrain. The engage depends on space and resources, not just combo damage.
Attack when Smolder has spent his sneeze on the wave and your support can cover a short approach. If he still has his flight and the enemy support can crowd-control your advance, hold your third ability instead of forcing it.
As Smolder, don't contest Lucian's combo when he comes in with his support and resources available. Keep a route open for your flight and use your sneeze to make his approach harder. If Lucian spends his third ability forward, back off toward your support and look to deal damage back once he finishes his shots. Use your ultimate to stop the chase before you run out of health.